Grace tops stars for 2nd win in a row on European Tour

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01/22/2012 - George, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Africa's Branden Grace toppled two of his home country's golfing icons, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, in a playoff Sunday to win the Volvo Golf Champions, his second win in a row on the European Tour.

Grace birdied the first playoff hole to best Els and Goosen. He earned his first tour victory a week ago at the Joburg Open and that got him into this exclusive event, reserved for European Tour players who won European Tour events in the last year.

Sunday's win at The Links at Fancourt had to be extra special for Grace considering he came through the Ernie Els and Fancourt Foundation. Perhaps even more amazing than two wins in the three events on the 2012 European Tour schedule, is that Grace came through tour Q School just last month.

Grace, a third-round co-leader, overcame a rocky start on Sunday that included a double-bogey at three and a bogey at four. He tallied five birdies the rest of the way for a two-under 71.

Els played the last 11 holes in five-under par and signed for a six-under 67 on Sunday. Goosen was alone in the lead until an errant drive at nine led to a double-bogey and he dropped a shot at 12. He rebounded with an eagle, three birdies, all in the last four holes, to shoot a three-under 70.

The trio finished regulation at 12-under 280 and headed back to the par-five closing hole at Fancourt.

Grace and Goosen both found the short grass off the tee at 18, but Els pulled his drive into the left rough. The Big Easy had to lay up with his second and both Grace and Goosen landed in the front right portion of the green.

Els' third stopped 15 feet from the flagstick, giving him a decent chance at birdie. Goosen stubbed his chip, while Grace lagged his eagle try close. Goosen failed to make birdie, and with Grace in close, the pressure belonged to Els.

His birdie putt stayed above ground and Grace tapped in for birdie and his second win in as many weeks and a healthy, albeit early, lead in the Race to Dubai.

"I'm really ecstatic," said Grace. "It's a dream come true to win such a big event - pretty much the best tournament I've played in so far."

Third-round co-leader Nicolas Colsaerts bogeyed the last to fall out of a possible playoff. He managed a one-under 72 and finished fourth at 11-under par.

Masters champion Charl Schwartzel also had a 72 on Sunday and came in fifth at minus-10.

European Ryder Cup captain Jose Maria Olazabal enjoyed a nice showing this week. The Hall of Famer shot an even-par 73 on Sunday and was sixth at eight- under 284.

"At certain moments in the round it looked a little bit like the old days," said Olazabal.

NOTES: This event was reserved not just for winners on last year's schedule, but also current tour members under the age of 50 with more than 10 victories are also invited...That is how Goosen and Olazabal got into the field...Next week is the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship in the United Arab Emirates, where Martin Kaymer has won the last two years...Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Kaymer and Tiger Woods are expected to make their season debuts.

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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back

With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.

"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."

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